General economic outlook

Secondo l’analisi del Centro Studi di Confindustria, la ripresa dell’Italia si rafforza, tanto da rivedere al rialzo la crescita del PIL per il 2018, portandolo a un +1,5% (a settembre la previsione era di +1,3%).

pattern_0.pngAccording to the Confindustria research center, Italy’s recovery is getting stronger, to the point that it has revised its September estimate of +1.3% for the year, bringing it up to +1.5%.
The confirmed figure for 2017 is 1.5% GDP growth. The GDP gap between Italy and other Eurozone countries is narrowing, even as the disparity with pre-crisis levels persists. The strong Italian performance is attributed, on one hand, to the excellent performance of exports, which have been gaining market shares, and on the other, to increased investments, incentivized by government action. For 2019, GDP is estimated to grow by +1.3%, still below the 2.7% of 2007. Also according to Confindustria, there should be a recovery of GDP growth in 2021.
The only indicators to outperform the pre-crisis growth trends have been exports and jobs. Employment remains murky territory nonetheless, with youth unemployment very high and many university graduates emigrating in search of greater opportunities.
Consumption is expected to rise by 1.5% for 2017, 1.3% for 2018 and 1.1% for 2019.
For the Eurozone as a whole, GDP growth should be 2.4% in 2017, +2.1% in 2018 and +1.9% in 2019.

According to Prometeia   Italian manufacturing is finally on the verge of a robust and solid recovery, with a 2017 turnover growth of 2.3% (at constant prices).
The strong performance is driven by both exports and a greater than expected push from the domestic market. The mechanical engineering sector is driving the growth with rates approaching +3%. During the three-year period 2017-19, the sector will resume its lynchpin role in Italian manufacturing, with production widely supported by both exports and the domestic market. What’s more, as already confirmed halfway through 2017, moderate to high tech sectors will drive the positive trend.
During 2017, the automotive sector, for example, should see growth hovering around +2.6%, pharmaceuticals (including OTC) some +2.5% and cosmetics and electric engineering 2.4%.
For 2018-19, the recovery of Italian manufacturing is expected to continue, with a trend at around 2%.
Manufacturing exports generally grew by 6.5% in 2017, and the top performance was achieved by pharmaceuticals (+13%), cars and motorcycles (+12.3%) and wide consumption goods (+12.2%).

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02/08/2018

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